Survey Highlights General Industry Concerns and Speculation on Shift to VOD After COVID-19

Outlook in physical aspects of film production and distribution look low, but faith in home entertainment and VOD surges

The novel coronavirus pandemic has already changed multiple aspects of the film industry, and many people suspect those changes will remain for quite a while.

According to a new survey conducted by film data researcher Stephen Follows, film industry professionals suspect VOD and digital distribution models will continue to see a surge in prominence a post-pandemic world. In contrast, they see the more physical aspects of the production pipeline – including financing, production, sales, distribution, and exhibition (including theaters, markets, and festivals) – taking a downward turn.

Survey Parameters

Follows, who conducted the survey with in-theater advertising company Screendollars, collected responses from 363 industry professionals. The professionals were split into five major groups: filmmakers, sales and distribution, exhibition, home entertainment/TV/VOD, and “other” (which includes “those in education, government bodies, festivals, journalism, cinema suppliers, and more”).

According to Follows’ website:

This survey was conducted between 4th and 14th May 2020. Respondents were self-selecting and we cannot know to what extent their views are shared by others.

We focused on the domestic market as 94.5% of our survey respondents were based in the United States or Canada. 58% of respondents were at senior or top positions in their companies and 81% expect to be still working in the industry in five years’ time.

If anything, this is just a reminder that these results should be taken with a grain of salt. Less than 400 people is but a fraction of the industry, and self-selected participation can’t guarantee a wide range of interviewees. It’s also uncertain what the exact breakdown was between the five categories, and if some were underrepresented when compared to others.

General Reads

As previously mentioned, all five categories foresee negative futures in the physical realms of the pipeline, including film finance, production, film sales, distribution, film festivals, and film markets. All five categories, on the other hand, see positive futures in the areas of physical home entertainment, digital home entertainment, subscription VOD, and films on television.

Most of the respondents saw fears of insolvency and job security as their primary concerns in a post-pandemic industry, with production pipeline disruption following close behind. Exhibitors were the main breakaway in the other categories, as they also listed top worries as a decreased theatrical window and the prevalence of VOD as a devaluating tool.

Most correspondents were in general agreement when asked about the public’s moviegoing habits returning to pre-lockdown levels. None of the five groups polled higher than 10% in the “almost immediately” category, and only the home entertainment crowd polled above 20% with the bleaker “it never will” response. Overall, about 70-90% of correspondents in all five categories think it will take a few months to upwards of a year for things to return to “normal”.

Another topic that correspondents primarily agreed on was about what should be done to ensure confidence in the theater experience post-lockdown. New hygiene practices at theaters and government confirmation of such spaces as being safe were the top two responses.

Major Competitors

The two groups that were the most at odds with each other were filmmakers and exhibitors. Barely more than 10% of filmmakers think the theatrical window post-lockdown should be the same as it was pre-lockdown (or even longer), compared to about 55% of exhibitors. Such schisms carried over to other topics, as well, with filmmakers favoring more flexible theatrical release windows and showing less faith in exhibitors’ ability to enforce lengthy ones.

Similar divides are seen when asked about specific titles, such as Frozen II and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker’s early addition to Disney Plus and Trolls World Tour’s discarded theatrical release in favor of a premium VOD one. In regards to both Disney and Universal’s decisions, 40-60% of exhibitors agreed to some degree that the companies were wrong, whereas 65-70% of filmmakers thought they were not.

Common Ground

But filmmakers and exhibitors do find some areas of shared concern. More than 50% of each group think studios are in the right to delay some of their big titles as opposed to releasing them all on VOD. (While filmmakers were more indifferent about it they still thought studios made the right decision, generally speaking.) This response suggests that the theatrical experience still holds quite a bit of value and cultural significance, despite everyone’s pessimistic outlook towards its future.

As Follows writes in his report:

On the one hand, audiences have become more accustomed to paying more for VOD-first content and it may take a long time for them to feel safe spending a few hours in crowded public spaces. On the other, being cooped up inside may further highlight the appeal of the big screen and movie-going provides a (relatively) inexpensive social experience.

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Filmmakers and exhibitors alike agree that theatrical models will need to significantly adapt in the wake of the pandemic. But no one can quite agree on what that change will be just yet.

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